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Explaining the Greater Impact of Trade on GDP: Comparison with the 2001 Recession

Explaining the Greater Impact of Trade on GDP: Comparison with the 2001 Recession

EXPLAINING THE GREATER IMPACT OF TRADE ON GDP: COMPARISON WITH THE 2001 RECESSION

Fluctuations in Singapore’s real GDP are closely correlated to changes in trade figures, because of Singapore’s nature as an externally-oriented and open economy. In the first quarter of 2009, nominal trade fell by a sharp 24 per cent. Although this decline was similar to the decline experienced at the bottom of the 2001 recession (-21 per cent), the decline in real GDP in the first quarter of 2009 (-10 per cent) was more severe than its corresponding decline in 2001 (-6.4 per cent) (Exhibit 1).

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