ECONOMIC SURVEY OF SINGAPORE FIRST QUARTER 2018
(24 May 2018)
Opening Remarks by Mr Loh
Khum Yean,
Permanent Secretary for Trade
& Industry
1
Good morning and welcome to MTI.
2
Details of Singapore’s economic
performance for the first quarter and the growth outlook for 2018 are contained
in the press release. Let me highlight the key points.
3
The Singapore economy expanded robustly in the first quarter of 2018.
- On a year-on-year basis,
GDP grew by 4.4 per cent in the first quarter, higher than the 3.6 per cent
growth in the fourth quarter of 2017. Growth
was primarily supported by the manufacturing, finance & insurance and wholesale
trade sectors.
- On a quarter-on-quarter
seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, the economy expanded by 1.7 per cent, moderating from the 2.1 per cent growth in
the preceding quarter.
4
At the last Economic Survey of
Singapore media briefing in February, MTI highlighted that the global growth outlook
for 2018 had improved slightly. Since then, the growth outlook of some of
Singapore’s key final demand markets has improved further, with the IMF upgrading
its 2018 forecasts for the US and Eurozone.
- The US economy is projected to grow at a faster pace this
year, partly due to a larger expected boost to private investment as a result
of the recent tax reforms. Stable
labour market conditions, along with rising wages, will also continue to support private consumption in the US.
- The
growth outlook for the Eurozone
economy for 2018 has also improved slightly since the start of the year, with
full-year growth now expected to be similar to that achieved in 2017. In
particular, domestic demand is projected to remain resilient on the back of
improving labour market conditions, as well as healthy business and consumer
sentiments. At the same time, monetary policies in the region are likely to
remain largely accommodative, thereby supporting growth.
- In Asia, China’s GDP
growth is projected to slow in 2018 as compared to 2017 on the back of an
expected moderation in exports growth. Investment
growth is also likely to ease slightly with the scaling back of infrastructure
investments. Within ASEAN, growth in the key economies is expected to remain firm
in 2018, supported by sustained improvements in domestic demand
as well as merchandise exports.
5
Alongside the improvement in the
growth outlook of some of the key economies, some uncertainties and downside risks in the global economy have also increased
since early 2018.
- First, recent protectionist actions and tariff measures by the US have
increased the risk of global trade tensions. This could adversely affect
international trade as well as dampen investor and consumer confidence, in turn
weighing on global growth.
- Second, against the backdrop of rising global interest rates and
generally tightening financial conditions, financial vulnerabilities in
emerging market economies could surface, particularly for those with elevated
debt levels, including in the region. If this occurs, there could be some
pullback in investment and consumption growth in these economies.
6
On balance, MTI expects the pace of growth in the Singapore
economy to remain firm in 2018, with growth supported primarily by
outward-oriented sectors. In particular, the manufacturing sector is likely to
continue to expand on the back of sustained growth in the electronics and precision
engineering clusters, albeit at a more moderate pace as compared to 2017.
Likewise, outward-oriented services sectors such as finance & insurance,
transportation & storage and wholesale trade are projected to continue to
benefit from healthy external demand.
7
Growth is also expected to broaden further to
domestically-oriented services sectors over the course of the year, on the back
of an improvement in consumer sentiments amidst the on-going recovery in the
labour market. However, the performance of the construction sector is likely to
remain lacklustre as the earlier weakness in construction demand, particularly
from the private sector, is expected to continue to weigh on construction
activities this year.
8
Taking into account the robust performance of the Singapore economy in
the first quarter and the slightly improved external demand outlook for
Singapore, MTI expects GDP growth for 2018 to come in at between “2.5 to 3.5 per cent”, barring the full
materialisation of downside risks.
9
Together
with my panel members, I am happy to take your questions now.