Singapore's Export Performance

Global trade collapsed in 2009, on the back of a synchronised and protracted fall in global demand. For the year as a whole, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has estimated that the volume of world trade contracted by 12 per cent, the first decline since records started in 1986. As key exporters to the world, Asian economies were not unscathed. Exports from the NIEs and developing Asia fell by 7.1 per cent and 8.1 per cent in 2009, compared to growth of 3.0 per cent and 6.5 per cent respectively in 2008.

However, the headline figures mask the very large swing in export performance between the first and second half of 2009. Exports plunged by unprecedented rates in the first quarter of 2009, but started picking up by the second and third quarters of the year. By the fourth quarter of 2009, exports from Hong Kong, Indonesia and Malaysia had already returned to or exceeded pre-crisis levels in the first quarter of 2008 (Exhibit 1). In terms of growth rates, exports from a number of Asian economies experienced strong recovery in the fourth quarter of 2009. For example, Taiwan’s and Indonesia’s exports grew by 15 per cent and 6.3 per cent respectively year-on-year. Singapore’s export recovery has in fact lagged the other East Asian economies, growing by just4.9 per cent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2009, after four consecutive periods of double-digit declines.

The recovery in Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports was largely due to increased demand from Greater China...

The headline numbers for Singapore’s export performance also mask the considerable variation in the geographical drivers of the export recovery (Exhibit 2). In particular, non-oil domestic exports(NODX) to China, Taiwan and Hong Kong have shown the strongest recovery following the sharp decline during the crisis. By the end of 2009, Singapore’s exports to these economies had bounced back and in fact were 13 per cent above pre-crisis levels, with year-on-year growth of 28 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2009. Although Singapore’s NODX to the ASEAN economies have remained below pre-crisis levels, they rose by 6.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2009, compared to a 15 per cent decline in the preceding quarter.

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