Singapore Growth Cycle Chronology and Performance of Composite Leading Indicators

This article provides an update to Singapore's growth cycle chronology and examines the performance of Singapore's Composite Leading Index (CLI). There were two growth cycles since 2004..

The first cycle (peak-trough-peak) began in mid-2004, as economic growth moderated following the exceptionally strong growth in the post-SARS period. The second cycle started in early 2008, led by the US housing and financial crisis. The subsequent recovery that began in the second half of 2009 was short-lived, as growth momentum faded by mid-2010.

Our empirical study shows that the CLI maintains its leading properties, and anticipates cyclical turning points in the economy.

The views expressed in this paper are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Singapore Department of Statistics, the Ministry of Trade and Industry or the Government of Singapore.

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