Long-Run Impact of Vocational Secondary Education

Singapore’s education system has long offered students a range of educational pathways so that students can learn at a pace that suits them. In 1994, the Normal course was differentiated into the Normal (Academic) [N(A)] and Normal (Technical) [N(T)] courses, with the latter aimed at reducing dropout rates and supporting students who were inclined towards a vocational secondary education.

In this study, we examined the long-run impact of vocational secondary education on students. Specifically, we compared the highest education attained and labour market outcomes of students who attended the N(T) course against those of students who attended the N(A) course, focusing on the first five cohorts of N(T) and N(A) students. To estimate the causal impact of attending the N(T) course, we used a regression discontinuity design, which compared the outcomes of students who scored just above versus those who scored just below the Primary School Leaving Examination (PSLE) cut-off score used to assign students to the N(A) or N(T) course.

We found that students who attended the N(T) course were 3.2 percentage-points (pp) more likely to complete secondary school and 7.6 pp more likely to attain a post-secondary qualification, typically from the Institute of Technical Education (ITE), compared to those who attended the N(A) course. However, these students were also 3.1 pp less likely to obtain a degree from publicly-funded universities. In terms of labour market outcomes (i.e., employment, earnings and wealth accumulation), we found that the N(T) and N(A) students had comparable outcomes.

Taken together, our findings indicate that attending the N(T) course resulted in a higher level of minimum education attained by its students by increasing their likelihood of completing secondary education and obtaining a post-secondary qualification, while also maintaining comparable labour market outcomes. This suggests that the policy of having an N(T) course effectively achieved its goals of reducing dropout rates and supporting students who were inclined towards vocational secondary education. had comparable outcomes.

The views expressed in this paper are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI), the Ministry of Education (MOE), or the Government of Singapore.

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