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Explaining the Divergence between GDP and Trade Growth

14 February 2008

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In the past few years, headline GDP growth and total trade growth have tended to move in tandem with each other. High levels of GDP growth have typically corresponded with high trade growth. However, GDP growth outpaced trade growth in the final quarter of 2006 and most of 2007. While real GDP grew at similar rates in 2006 and 2007, total trade growth fell sharply from 13 per cent in 2006 to 4.5 per cent in 2007 (Exhibit 1).

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