Employment Trends During Recession : A Comparison From Peak to Trough

Over the last three decades, Singapore has experienced four periods of economic downturn during which employment saw a sustained decline. These were the 1984/1985 recession, the 1998 recession arising from the Asian Financial Crisis, the 2001 recession due to the dot.com bust, as well as the recent recession in 2008/2009 caused by the Global Financial Crisis. This box article reviews the employment trends during the 2008/2009 recession in comparison with the trends observed during previous recessions.

Peak-to-Trough Decline Compared to Previous Recessions

Rapid recovery in employment seen within two quarters...

Singapore entered the 2008/2009 recession in the second quarter of 2008 and emerged from it five quarters later in the second quarter of 2009. Historically, the labour market has tended to lag GDP by 2 to 3 quarters. This recession was no different, with employment levels starting to decline in the first quarter of 2009. From its peak in the fourth quarter of 2008, employment fell by 0.5 per cent (or 13,900) over two quarters to 2,938,600 in the second quarter of 2009. Employment quickly rebounded in the second half of the year and by the end of 2009, had exceeded pre-crisis levels to hit a new high of 2,991,200 (based on preliminary estimates). 2009 therefore marks the first calendar year in which Singapore experienced positive employment growth (1.3 per cent) with negative GDP growth (-2.0 per cent).

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