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Economic Policy Uncertainty in Singapore

25 November 2014

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Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty in Singapore

 In the US, economic policy uncertainty in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) rose to historically high levels because of uncertainty about tax, spending, regulatory and monetary policies. Some analysts have argued that this uncertainty had in turn slowed the US’ recovery from the recession by causing businesses and households to cutback or postpone investment, hiring and consumption.

In this study, we construct an economic policy uncertainty index for Singapore (SG-EPU) to examine the trends in economic policy uncertainty in Singapore, as well as their key drivers. Following the methodology used by Baker, Bloom and Davis (2012) for countries like the US and China, the SG-EPU index comprises a news-based component and a forecaster disagreement component.

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