Keynote Speech by Minister for Trade and Industry (Energy and Industry) Dr Tan See Leng at the MTI Economic Dialogue 2026

Professor Yohanes Eko Riyanto, Chair, School of Social Sciences, NTU

Distinguished guests,

Ladies and gentlemen

1. Good afternoon.

2. At last year’s MTI Economic Dialogue, DPM Gan spoke about why and how Singapore was reviewing our economic strategy.

3. The Economic Strategy Review, or ESR, which published its final report in June this year, sets out a refreshed strategy for a world that has changed fundamentally.

a. Geopolitical tensions and geoeconomic fragmentation are reshaping trade and investment.

b. Technology, particularly AI, is transforming businesses and jobs.

c. Climate change and the energy transition are creating new constraints, but also new opportunities.

4. At the same time, some things about Singapore have not changed.

a. We remain a small country, highly dependent on trade, and will continue to face constraints in land, labour and carbon.

5. So the question before us is a fundamental one: How does a small, open economy continue to thrive in a world that is becoming more fragmented and less predictable?

I. Knowing what does not change

6. Today, I would like to offer three responses to this question.

7. First, we should be clear about what does not change – the fundamentals of our economy and the foundations on which our success has been built.

Our Fundamentals

8. Let me start with Singapore’s fundamentals.

9. Trade is Singapore’s DNA and lifeblood.

a. In 2025, our total trade was more than three times our GDP, while outward-oriented sectors made up more than 70 per cent of our economy.

b. Openness is therefore an economic necessity.

c. Our livelihoods depend on us remaining connected to the world.

10. But the conditions for staying open have become more difficult.

a. Geopolitical and national security considerations shape economic policy decisions around the world with greater intensity today.

b. As a result, businesses are now placing greater weight on resilience and security.

c. It used to be that we talked about efficiency and ‘just in time’. Today, besides being efficient, we also need to be prepared, so we have to add ‘just in case’.

d. For a small and open economy like ours, these shifts make the external environment less predictable and more prone to disruption.

11. We also face constraints domestically.

a. Land will remain scarce.

b. Resident workforce growth will slow as our population ages.

c. And carbon will become a tighter constraint as the world decarbonises and we strive to achieve our net zero target.

12. These realities point to a simple conclusion: Singapore’s next phase of growth cannot come from using more land, adding more workers or emitting more carbon.

a. It must come from scouring and creating more value from what we have.

b. That means raising productivity, and moving into more innovative and higher-value activities.

13. On the positive side, our geography gives us opportunity.

a. We are situated in Southeast Asia and a member of ASEAN – already the world’s fifth-largest economy and projected to become the fourth-largest by 2030.

b. Our region offers growing markets, resources and production capability and capacity that can complement Singapore’s strengths in connectivity, technology and skills.

c. Singapore’s physical boundaries therefore need not define the boundaries of our economy.

Our Foundations

14. Successive generations have also built strong foundations from which we can compete.

15. We have become a trusted base for advanced manufacturing.

a. We are a key node in several high-value segments of the global economy – including semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, specialty chemicals and aerospace.

16. Alongside this industrial base, Singapore has developed into a hub of flows.

a. Our port and airport connect us to global flows of goods and people.

b. Our financial centre connects capital across Asia and the world.

c. And our refining, trading and logistics capabilities have made Singapore an important node in global energy flows.

17. Importantly, we have also learnt to capture value from these flows.

a. We do not simply move goods; we manage supply chains.

b. We do not simply channel capital; we provide financing, insurance, and asset management.

c. And many global companies use Singapore not just to access domestic and regional markets, but as a base for R&D, regional management and investment decisions.

18. Underpinning all these is something less tangible, but equally important: trust in Singapore and our institutions.

a. Companies know that our infrastructure works; that rules are clear and contracts are upheld; that they can build skilled teams here; and that the Government is prepared to solve problems practically and pragmatically.

19. These are valuable foundations.

a. But in a changing world, they too must evolve.

II. Knowing what must change

20. This brings me to my second point – knowing what must change.

21. That is what the ESR seeks to do. It is framed by three imperatives:

a. Sharpen Singapore’s value proposition;

b. Enhance our agility and adaptability; and

c. Build resilience alongside efficiency.

Sharpening our value proposition

22. Sharpening our value proposition means being more deliberate about where Singapore can create the most value, and build hard-to-replicate capabilities.

23. In advanced manufacturing and services, this means going beyond attracting investments.

a. We need to anchor higher-value capabilities such as R&D, regional leadership, and deep talent pipelines to make Singapore integral to how goods and services are developed globally.

b. The deeper these activities are rooted here, the greater their potential to generate wider benefits for the economy.

c. For example, they provide opportunities for Singaporeans to move into higher-value roles; enable local firms to plug into global supply chains and build new capabilities; and facilitate knowledge and technology diffusion across the economy. These wider linkages and spillovers give us a fuller picture of the value an investment creates, beyond headline jobs and value-added.

24. At the same time, we must build new sources of growth.

a. Not every bet will succeed, but we must take calculated risks and invest early in emerging areas where Singapore has a credible right to play such as quantum, space and decarbonisation technologies.

b. Making incremental steps in these areas will not be enough to achieve our ambitions.

c. We have to aim to be exceptional.

25. AI will cut across many of these efforts.

a. We need not build the largest frontier model or host the largest data centres.

b. Our opportunity is to become one of the best places to develop, test and deploy trusted AI solutions to solve real-world problems.

c. We must also ensure that the gains from AI diffuse beyond leading firms. SMEs must be able to adopt useful solutions, and workers must be equipped to use AI alongside their domain expertise.

26. In short, we want Singapore to be valuable not just because goods, people, capital and energy pass through us, but also because (a) important decisions are made here; and (b) these activities create opportunities and capabilities for Singaporeans and our companies.

Enhancing our agility and adaptability

27. Agility, adaptability and how nimble we are will matter just as much.

28. Technologies, business models and supply chains are constantly changing. Our advantage will depend not only on what we are good at today, but on how innovative, agile and adaptable we can be when circumstances change. The pace of change will accelerate exponentially.

29. For enterprises, this means creating an environment where new companies and ideas can emerge; promising companies can scale; and Singapore-based companies can venture confidently into the world.

a. Our small domestic market makes internationalisation essential.

b. Looking overseas allows Singapore companies to tap markets and production capacity across the region, while anchoring higher-value functions such as strategy, finance, product development and regional management here.

30. For workers, agility means proactively shaping how technologies are adopted at work, and upskilling workers to take on redesigned and new jobs.

a. We recognise that AI and automation may allow firms to produce more with fewer workers.

b. As such, we can no longer assume that growth will automatically create the same number or range of jobs as before.

c. What we can and will do is to:

i. Encourage AI that complements workers;

ii. Build pathways into growth sectors;

iii. Raise job quality in essential and resilient occupations, such as skilled trades;

iv. And make entrepreneurship a credible pathway to create value and jobs.

31. Support for workers should begin early.

a. Career bridges can connect workers in at-risk roles to new opportunities, backed by training, guidance and job matching.

32. On the part of workers, lifelong learning must also become a normal part of working life.

a. Formal education will remain an important foundation, but cannot be the end of learning.

b. Future-ready workers will need to combine AI fluency with deep domain expertise, and with human capabilities such as judgement, communication and empathy.

c. Global exposure will matter too, as our firms expand abroad.

33. Managing these transitions well matters not only for our economy, but also for our social compact.

a. As change becomes faster and more disruptive, we must ensure that Singaporeans continue to see opportunities for themselves and have the support to adapt.

b. This is how we keep our society cohesive even as our economy transforms.

Building resilience alongside efficiency

34. Last but not least, we must strengthen our resilience.

35. For a trade-dependent economy, resilience cannot mean retreating from the world.

a. Instead, we need to be open, but less vulnerable; connected, but better prepared.

36. That means -

a. Understanding where our critical vulnerabilities lie;

b. Diversifying and building appropriate buffers in areas such as energy and critical supply chains;

c. Preparing for a low-carbon and climate-impaired future; and

d. Deepening partnerships that keep vital flows open during periods of disruption.

37. These choices require balance.

a. Maximising efficiency alone can leave us with little room to manoeuvre when shocks occur.

b. But buffering against every conceivable risk would be costly and impractical.

c. The real questions are therefore: which risks matter most, how much resilience do we need, and what are we prepared to pay for it?

38. There will not always be obvious answers.

a. And that illustrates a broader point about the ESR.

b. It provides a clear direction of where our economy needs to head towards in the next stage of our development.

c. But getting us there will require us to make difficult choices under uncertainty.

III. Making better choices - Economist Service at 25

39. That brings me to my third and final point – as the choices become harder and trade-offs starker, we must become better at making them – which is why the Government’s Economist Service will matter even more.

40. Economic strategy is ultimately about choices and trade-offs.

a. Where should we place our bets?

b. When should Government intervene, and when should markets be allowed to develop and operate freely?

c. How much should we pay for greater resilience?

d. And when global or domestic conditions change, should we change course?

41. Addressing these questions requires evidence, analytical discipline and sound judgement.

42. This is where the Economist Service comes in.

a. Twenty-five years ago, the Government established the Economist Service to build a core group of economic experts within the public sector.

b. The objectives are two-fold. First, to deepen the rigour of economic analysis for evidence-based policy formulation.

c. Second, to provide a clear professional career pathway for public sector economists to have a meaningful career.

d. From just five economists in 2001, there are now more than 100 economists serving across more than 20 ministries and agencies.

e. Today, Economist Service officers are involved in economic surveillance, policy-oriented economic research, and policy design and evaluation across a wide range of domains – from trade and manpower, to security, social, health, infrastructure, sustainability and the environment.

43. This work will become even more important as Singapore embarks on the next phase of our economic transformation under the ESR. For example:

a. Our economists will help us assess whether our strategies and investments are generating the intended productivity gains and economy-wide benefits; understand how AI is affecting jobs and wages for different groups of workers; weigh the costs of resilience against the risks of disruption; and assess when policies may need to adapt or change.

44. AI and richer sources of data will give economists more powerful tools.

a. But better tools do not remove the need for good economists.

b. On the contrary, economists are needed to ask the right questions; select the appropriate model; interpret the evidence and challenge assumptions when necessary; as well as exercise judgement on what the evidence means for policy, what are the trade-offs and whether these trade-offs should be made.

45. Economics does not give us certainty about the future.

a. What it gives us is a disciplined way to present the trade-offs and make better choices in the face of uncertainty.

b. That is the enduring value of the Economist Service.

46. As we celebrate the 25th anniversary of the Economist Service, I would like to thank past and present generations of Economist Service officers for their contributions to evidence-based policymaking across the public sector.

a. Your work will become even more important as we translate the ESR into detailed strategies and outcomes – and ensure that economic progress ultimately leads to better jobs and lives for Singaporeans.

47. Today, I am also pleased to present the Economist Service Undergraduate Scholarship to our budding economists.

48. My heartiest congratulations to all the recipients.

49. You are entering the profession at an interesting time.

a. The questions will become harder.

b. The data will become richer.

c. The tools will become more powerful.

50. But your role remains the same: to work with policymakers to apply economic principles to policy design, examine the evidence critically, illuminate the choices and associated trade-offs before us, and help us make better decisions.

51. I look forward to your future contributions to the Economist Service and to Singapore.

Conclusion

52. Singapore’s next phase of growth will be harder won.

53. But if we remain clear-eyed about our constraints, deliberate about where we can create value, and disciplined in how we make choices and adapt, we can continue to build a competitive and resilient economy that creates good jobs, and a country brimming with hope and opportunities for Singapore and Singaporeans.

54. Thank you.