Mr Dave Ernsberger, Co-President, S&P Global Commodity Insights;

 

Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen;

 

Introduction

 

1. Good morning. It is my pleasure to join you at the 2025 Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, or APPEC for short. APPEC is hosted annually in Singapore by S&P Global and supported by Enterprise Singapore (EnterpriseSG), and this 41^st edition is the most well-attended to date, with over 1,200 delegates from 46 countries.

 

2. This year’s theme, “Navigating Trade, Technology and Transition”, is a timely one. The global energy sector is facing both turbulence and transformation, shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, as well as the transition to a low-carbon economy.

 

3. Singapore remains committed to being a thriving global hub for energy trade in a low-carbon future. However, we also recognise that traditional energy sources will continue to be important for some time. We will smoothly manage this transition by supporting companies in navigating the 3Ts of Trade, Technology, and Transition.

 

Trade — Navigating Complexity in an Uncertain Landscape

 

4. The first T is on navigating an increasingly challenging trading landscape.

 

a. Geopolitical tensions have ushered in a new era of volatility. The Russia-Ukraine war has disrupted global energy supply chains, resulting in a surge in energy prices. US tariffs have dampened global growth prospects, and uncertainty remains over how India may or will recalibrate its demand for Russian oil in response to the tariffs.

 

b. Supply dynamics are shifting, too. OPEC+ has unwound its production cuts, while non-OPEC producers, such as the US and Brazil, have expanded output. In addition, oversupply from China is weighing on margins. Combined with softer demand from tariff-induced economic uncertainty and structural changes in key markets like China, Brent crude recently hit a four-year low in May 2025 at US$60 per barrel. However, it has since recovered slightly to US$67 per barrel.

 

c. There is structural overcapacity in refining and petrochemicals, especially in East Asia. A glut of refined products, such as diesel and naphtha, has placed downward pressure on margins. The International Energy Agency recently projected a record oil supply glut next year, with an expected surplus inventory of around 3 million barrels per day.

 

5. Singapore remains a global energy trading hub of choice for companies, amid this uncertain environment.

 

a. Between 2023 and 2024, energy trade conducted through Singapore grew from US$1.44 trillion to US$1.67 trillion, along with a 5% increase in the number of trading professionals based here. We continue to welcome you to deploy, to anchor more professionals to be based here so that you can use Singapore as a control tower base to manage, orchestrate as well as plan your operations in Asia Pacific.

 

b. Singapore also welcomed six new firms from the energy and chemicals sector on board EnterpriseSG’s Global Traders Programme in 2024. One example is Yulong Petrochemical, which operates a 400,000 barrels-per-day refinery in Shandong.

 

c. We continue to build on our key strengths as a trusted, stable and connected hub to anchor trading activities in Singapore.

 

Technology — Harnessing Innovation to Stay Ahead

 

6. The second T is on harnessing technology, which is reshaping how firms trade, produce, and compete.

 

a. Traders are incorporating artificial intelligence (AI) into forecasting and risk management, with assistance from government programmes.

 

b.    EnterpriseSG offers support to firms in expanding or setting up new operations, including those that leverage on AI. Mining major BHP Group Limited set up a regional AI hub in May 2025. By integrating AI into its core operations, it has unlocked new insights to support sustainable and profitable growth across its global commodity supply chains. AI will help is achieve three As –

 

1. Assist – it will help us to assist some of your staff who may not have any teams to manage. AI will help them to develop the arms and legs to assist them.

 

2. Augment – it will help to augment the products and services, how we are delivering it to the customers.

 

3. Automate – from the example of BHP Group, you can see how we can use AI to grow the topline and bottom line and also help to mitigate the existing risks that we talked about.

 

c. AI Singapore’s (AISG) 100 Experiments provides co-funding of up to S$180,000 per project and access to manpower and AI experts. Four Elements Capital is a commodity asset manager which developed a machine learning (ML) framework with AISG’s support, helping it to predict base metal price fluctuations. This enables it to more effectively identify trading and arbitrage opportunities.

 

Transition – Thriving in a Low-Carbon Future

 

7. The third T is positioning Singapore well to seize growth opportunities as it transitions to a low-carbon economy.

 

8. With Asia growing in importance as a key import and export market for green commodities, Singapore is well-positioned to play a significant role in the four key growth areas of sustainable products, biofuels, alternative maritime fuels, and carbon trading.

 

9. First, we are expanding our production of sustainable products on Jurong Island to meet the growing regional demand. We will continue to grow the base in Jurong Island. We recently welcomed speciality chemicals firm Arkema, which manufactures polyamide-11, a high-performance polymer derived from renewable castor oil, which leaves a much lower carbon footprint versus fossil-based polymers. In July 2025, Arkema opened in Singapore, the world’s largest integrated factory dedicated to bio-circular materials.

 

10. Second, we are actively growing our biofuels production and trading ecosystem to capitalise on fast-growing regional demand. According to the International Energy Agency, Asia is set to overtake Europe in production and demand of biofuels by next year.

 

a. On the production side, Singapore is home to the world’s largest sustainable aviation fuel production facility, operated by Neste. The energy and chemicals sector here plays a vital role in producing and supplying fuels for the world, and we are keen to support this sector to seize new opportunities in the manufacturing of biofuels.

 

b. On the trading side, Singapore has an extensive network of over 250 traders in energy and agri-commodities, including major trading firms such as Wilmar and Olam, which control the feedstock for biofuels. This confluence of buy and sell sides makes us compelling as a biofuels trading hub, with Singapore’s biofuels trading revenue reaching S$1.5 billion in 2023.

 

11. Third, we are developing more support for alternative maritime fuels, especially ammonia. Singapore’s position as the world’s largest bunkering hub is a unique advantage as we prepare for a multi-fuel future. While LNG, methanol and biofuels will remain relevant in the near term, ammonia is expected to gain momentum and account for a substantial share of bunker fuels by 2050. The strong industry response of 26 bids for EMA & Maritime Port Authority’s (MPA) ammonia bunkering Request for Proposal or RFP, underlines market confidence in Singapore’s potential to be a leader in maritime fuels and ammonia.

 

12. Fourth, we are developing Singapore as a hub for carbon services and trading. Today, we are home to more than 150 firms across the carbon services and trading value chain – double the number from 2021. EnterpriseSG supports global trading firms and energy players in setting up new carbon credit trading functions. Shell, BP, ExxonMobil and Chevron all have local carbon trading teams to capture opportunities in this space, as do independent traders Trafigura, Mercuria, Vitol and Glencore.

 

Conclusion

 

13. The energy and chemicals trade sector is facing one of its most complex periods in its history.

 

14. Singapore is committed to working with you to navigate this challenging time and to bridge today’s energy demands with tomorrow’s possibilities. Together, we will build a more resilient and sustainable future.

 

15. I wish all of you a fruitful time at APPEC, with meaningful conversations and the forging of fresh and successful partnerships. Thank you.